Overconfidence, complacency, recklessness and intoxication appear to characterize today's financial market zeitgeist. An unraveling of the market's speculative euphoria would constitute a near perfect environment for gold bullion and gold mining shares given that the fundamentals have rarely appeared more solid.
September’s end brought on a new season and a welcomed uptick in gold prices with a settle at $1,757 per ounce. While gold struggled for the month, its positive finish reflected the uncertainty of recent macroeconomic progress. Gold mining stocks were harder hit in September as markets appeared to be factoring in a price-side and cost-side margin squeeze.
Gold closed August at $1,814 with a dramatic dip early/mid-month and a quick recovery. Improved July payroll job data gave traders reason to question whether the Fed will maintain its easy monetary stance. Gold sold off but regained support, helped at month end by the Fed's dovish tone at Jackson Hole.
Gold bullion and gold mining equities gained ground in July. We saw a recovery in gold bullion investments as positions were repurchased and the decline in real yields to all-time lows added to the buying rationale. We believe that gold is well-positioned for a typical late summer/early fall rally, given record-negative real yields, a USD that may be topping out and waning taper/tightening fears.
Gold and precious metals took a drubbing in June following the hawkish FOMC meeting that added two rate hikes to the dot plot. Chaos among most asset classes ensued and gold was unduly affected by the strengthening USD and rising real yields. This doesn’t change gold’s long-term fundamental tailwinds, given the unprecedented expansion and reach of monetary and fiscal policies, akin to a grand experiment.
Gold is making headlines once again after the safe haven asset had its strongest month of gains since July 2020. Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf joins Asset TV's Jenna Dagenhart to discuss Sprott's outlook for gold and gold equities. Grosskopf: "I think it's a very healthy environment for gold and we believe it is likely to do well going forward."
Gold's strong performance in May made up for the Q1 correction. Rising U.S. CPI data spooked markets, but helped boost gold and silver prices. As we head into summer (a seasonally strong period for the precious metals complex), we see several macro tailwinds working in our favor.
April provided precious metals markets redemption from a challenging first quarter, with gold finishing the month up 3.60% and silver climbing 6.14%. Silver continues to benefit from expansionary monetary and fiscal policies worldwide and its key industrial role in the new technologies of the "green revolution."
The extraordinary events of 2020 have had a profound effect on virtually all markets around the globe and silver has been no exception. The metal’s supply/demand fundamentals, investment, prices, trade-flows and inventories have all experienced sensational fluctuations over the past 12 months or so, including a handful of historical records being achieved.
For many U.S. investors the returns provided by owning physical gold — and the other precious metals including silver, platinum and palladium — come with a sobering surprise when the assets are sold and it’s time to pay taxes. The reason: The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) categorizes gold and other precious metals as "collectibles" which are taxed at 28%. Most other types of long-term capital gains are taxed at 15%-20%.
The silver market is abuzz in 2021. After climbing more than 47% in 2020, silver continues to play catch up to gold. Growing investment and industrial demand have driven up silver prices and created supply shortages, especially for investors looking to buy the physical metal. Silver ETFs have enjoyed record flows.
Silver climbed more than 47% in 2020, reaffirming its value as a safe haven portfolio asset during the COVID pandemic. But our bullish outlook for silver is based on its unique role as an industrial metal. Silver should be integral to any "green revolution" discussions, given that it is critical to the success of EVs, solar energy and 5G cellular networks. We believe that silver demand will likely explode in the next 10 years, and we don't foresee supply growth keeping pace.
Gold started the year strongly, reaching almost $1,960 before dropping quickly back to support above the $1,800 range. We have been long-term bullish on silver, which has surged to an 8-year high. The Reddit crowd may accelerate this silver rally to extreme levels, but we can continue to make a strong fundamental case for silver that does not require any short squeeze schemes (real or imagined).
2020 was a tremendous year for precious metals. Gold bullion gained 25.12%. Silver bullion rose 47.89%. Palladium climbed 25.86% and platinum increased 10.92%. Gold mining equities were up 21.96% and gold junior mining stocks rose 48.53%. We expect the precious metals rally to continue in 2021 and offer our Top 10 list for investors.
As COVID spread in 2020, investors embraced gold and silver as portfolio protection. But the role of these metals extends far beyond this. We explore how precious metals are helping to medically combat the virus and identify several innovative disease-fighting applications that depend on gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
2020 has been a breakout year for precious metals. The uncertainty and risk-off sentiment created by the global COVID-19 pandemic have increased the luster of precious metals. Both gold and silver ETFs have enjoyed record flows. In this webcast, we explore the key benefits of precious metals investing in the current environment.
Precious metals took a post-election pause in November. Gold bullion lost 5.42% but is up 17.11% YTD and 21.38% YOY through November 30, 2020. Silver bullion lost 4.28% in November but has risen 26.84% YTD and 32.99% YOY. The macroeconomic fundamentals remain intact to support a continuation of this year’s precious metals rally. We see this correction as an attractive yearend, seasonal buying opportunity.
With building anxiety over the U.S. presidential election, investors stepped away from markets in October, including gold bullion and mining equities. The uncertainties of the election and COVID-19's surging second wave have created a "risk mitigation" type market. The gold bull market remains intact and both gold bullion and mining equities are well-positioned under most plausible election scenarios.
Markets experienced the first post-COVID meaningful correction in September as investment fund exposures were reduced, resulting in a contraction in market depth and liquidity. Despite September's profit taking, gold bullion posted its eighth straight quarterly gain. We see this as a buying opportunity for precious metals investors.
After touching a record high of $2,075 on August 7, gold bullion closed August at $1,968. Despite this pullback, we see gold well supported above the prior cycle high of $1,900 as it settles into a sustainable $2,000-$2,200 trading level. Both silver bullion and gold mining equities reached multi-year highs in August.
The economic fallout from COVID-19 has created a predictable headwind for jewelry purchases around the globe. We anticipate a healthy rebound in time, given that precious metals jewelry (especially gold and silver) is deeply rooted in global cultural norms and traditions. And despite the recent weakness in jewelry demand, metals prices continue to rally given the very supportive macroeconomic backdrop.
The precious metals complex set off fireworks in July as gold bullion reached all-time highs. Silver bullion and gold mining equities broke through significant long-term resistance levels to further improve their bullish standing. Year to date, precious metals continue to outperform as gold has attained “escape velocity”, i.e., it has gravitationally moved away from other asset classes.*
Gold bullion continued to deliver strong performance and was up 17.38% YTD through June 30, 2020, and 26.36% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities have gained 25.88% YTD, and 44.00% YOY as of June 30. This compares to -3.08% YTD and 7.51% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index. Silver posted strong gains in June and is on the move again; silver is up 1.99% YTD and 18.88% YOY as of June 30.
Silver has been on the move since April, although it is still playing catch up to gold in this year’s precious metals rally. We identify four long-term consumer-driven trends that are positively driving demand for silver, including solar energy, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), 5G cellular connectivity and antimicrobial applications.
After a tumultuous past few months, every asset class appears to be normalizing, including gold bullion. Gold posted steady gains in May with a 2.6% increase. Gold is up 14.04% YTD through May 31, 2020, and 32.54% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities have gained 18.26% YTD, and 61.70% YOY as of May 31. This compares to -4.97% YTD and 12.84% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index. Silver also posted strong gains in May and is on the move again.
Gold equities broke out of a multi-year resistance level on massive buying flows in April. Gold miners may be experiencing disruptions due to COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, but they stand to benefit from a rising gold price. Gold bullion is up +11% YTD and +31% year-over-year (through April 30, 2020).
March 2020 will go down in history as one of the most tumultuous ever for capital markets. For the first time in over 100 years, a global pandemic has struck with devastating results. Gold continues to deliver strong relative performance and was up 3.95% on a year-to-date basis through March 31, 2020, compared to -19.60% for the S&P 500 TR Index. The need for a safe haven asset like gold, that represents a store of value during crises has never been greater.
Whitney George reflects on markets and the COVID-19 crisis: "We are in a paradigm shift right now, one that may have taken us all a bit by surprise. I expect that central banks will shortly provide the liquidity required to settle the markets, an accomplishment that will be very favorable to gold."
The Fed made a surprise interest rate cut of 50 basis points on Tuesday, March 3, and gold bullion closed the week higher, above $1,670. This follows gold's February breakout from the critical $1,585/$1,600 overhead resistance range that we have highlighted for several months.
2019 marked the best performance for the precious metals complex in nearly a decade. Gold bullion closed the year at $1,517 (gaining 18.31% for the 12 months). Silver bullion ended the year at $17.85 (up 15.23% in 2019). Platinum climbed 21.56% in 2019, and palladium soared 54.24%. Gold mining equities showed notable strength, finishing 2019 up 46.97%.
Gold bullion consolidated in October, closing the month at $1,513, a 2.75% gain; YTD gold is up 17.97% as of 10/31/19. Silver bullion rose 6.55% for the month and has gained 16.86% YTD. As gold companies report Q3 earnings in the coming weeks, we expect robust earnings results to lift gold equity prices. The timing may be favorable as we are also heading into the best consecutive four-month seasonality pattern for gold mining equities.
We believe the precious metals bull market is just in its early stages. Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director, National Sales at Sprott Asset Management, joins special guests Doug Groh and Ryan McIntyre, Portfolio Managers at Tocqueville Asset Management, to discuss their outlooks for gold bullion and gold equities, and suggest the optimal gold portfolio allocation for most investors.
Given gold’s sharp rise since May, September’s correction was not unexpected. We believe it is reflective of a new consolidation phase, and likely to be short term in nature. All factors that we consider to be significantly correlating to gold bullion indicate that we are still in the early stages of a major long-term advance.
For many U.S. investors the returns provided by owning physical gold — and the other precious metals including silver, platinum and palladium — come with a sobering surprise when the assets are sold and it’s time to pay taxes. The reason: The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) categorizes gold and other precious metals as “collectibles” which are taxed at a 28% long-term capital gains rate.
We predicted that 2019 could surprise to the upside. YTD, through the Friday, July 19 close, gold bullion was up 11.14% and silver bullion has gained 4.58%....The wind is now at our backs and we believe that both gold and silver will climb higher. Silver, in particular, has the potential to significantly outperform gold.
Charley Wright of Strategic Investor Radio interviews Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott. They discuss Coyne's unconventional career path from architecture to finance, and explore why precious metals are one of the best alternatives for investor portfolios.
Silver, platinum and palladium (the “white metals”) join gold (the “yellow metal”) to complete the quartet of the world’s most precious metals. Although gold tends to overshadow them, the white precious metals have the same potential to hold an essential role in an investor’s portfolio.
Silver has faced a challenging investment environment, and over the past three years, the metal has underperformed gold. But with silver's price hovering at $15 per ounce, we see tremendous investment upside — with little downside — given what we view as very positive developments in the market.
According to the World Silver Survey 2019, the silver market looks “promising” in 2019 as the supply and demand picture is expected to remain relatively stable, with demand hitting a three-year high in 2018.
Sprott Physical Silver Trust (NYSE ARCA: PSLV) is a proud sponsor of the 2019 World Silver Survey.
As investors flee the emerging markets and seek the safety of the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities, they've increased their short positions in commodities. Most surprisingly, and counterintuitively, bets against precious metals (gold, silver and platinum) have reached record levels.
Senior Portfolio Manager Maria Smirnova champions Sprott's bullish view on silver. Despite silver’s recent tepid performance, fundamentals remain very compelling, and the supply/demand outlook has never been more supportive of a strong price. Silver is enjoying an uptick in industrial demand being driven in part by the high-tech auto industry, given a global move toward electrification and automation powered by solar technology.
Ed Coyne, Executive Vice President at Sprott Asset Management discusses how an allocation to gold and silver can complement equities in an investment portfolio, and why Sprott advocates a 5% to10% allocation for most investors. Coyne also introduces the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF), which represents the successful takeover of Central Fund of Canada.
Maria Smirnova, Senior Portfolio Manager, discusses precious metals, and how it is getting much harder to find new deposits, given the drop-off in exploration budgets. She explains how an allocation to gold and silver in an investment portfolio can reduce volatility.
Senior Portfolio Manager Maria Smirnova shares key takeaways from the Silver Institute’s 3rd Silver Industrial Conference that focused on “Silver’s Evolving Role in Science and Technology.” Smirnova looks at silver’s expanding role given its use in solar, automotive, electronics and healthcare applications, and explains why we are bullish on the metal.
"Silver commands an established precious-metal pedigree, while simultaneously boasting a wide array of active economic functions," writes Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik. This report explores silver's bullish supply/demand fundamentals and why this bodes well for higher silver prices ahead.
Insights from Sprott
- WGC - Gold: The Most Effective Commodity Investment
- WGC - The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset
- WGC - Gold Outlook 2021
- WGC - Gold Mining’s Contribution to the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2020
- World Silver Survey 2021
- Silver's Growing Role in the Automotive Industry - Jan. 2021
- Silver's Important Role in Solar Power - June 2020
- Silver's Role in a 5G Connected World - March 2020