Insights

Gold mining stocks are inextricably connected to the price behavior of gold bullion. Yet their recent response to the gold bull market has been disappointing. If gold should rise above the psychological $2,000 threshold, this may provide a strong catalyst for gold mining stocks. 

Let it be said here that the financial media at best pays only lip service to the thought: there is likely no safer asset than physical gold. The yellow metal has no counterparty risk (unlike all other financial instruments including bank deposits and government bonds), is highly liquid and has an unbroken record of retaining value in absolute terms and relative to financial assets.

Gold was an effective hedge in 2022, returning -0.28% for the bear market year. The yellow metal outperformed the S&P 500 Index, which declined 18.11%. Gold mining equities also outpaced the S&P 500. Looking ahead, we believe investors willing to seize the opportunity presented by inexpensive, unloved gold mining equities, will have the potential to reap substantial benefits from breaking the ranks of groupthink.

The parabolic rise in the dollar contains the seeds of its own demise. The kiss of death, as for all overcrowded trades, is that it has become front page news. Dollar strength is a mirage, the reverse image of the flaw inherent in all paper currencies. The fatal flaw is that they are the ever increasing issuance of fiscal decay. The façade of dollar strength foretells a comeuppance for all currencies in the form of a steep devaluation in terms of gold.

If the Fed is to abandon the practice of inflating financial assets, which would represent a secular shift in direction, substantial deflation lies ahead from which the purchasing power of gold is expected increase in real terms. If there is a return to business as usual, i.e., papering over policy mistakes, we believe that the gold price has the potential to rise to all-time highs in nominal terms.

Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors interviews Sprott's John Hathaway on the gold bullion and gold equities markets. Oakley and Hathaway discuss why investors should consider adding gold to their investment portfolios and explore how gold affects portfolio diversification.

The price of gold has been treading water for 10 years while the investment fundamentals have improved dramatically. That is why, in our opinion, significant upside lies ahead for gold and related equities. Putin’s war introduces yet an additional reason to stoke investment demand for the yellow metal. It is not only war in the kinetic sense, but the reserve currency and cyber aspects that have far-reaching implications for gold. 

Stephanie Pomboy and Grant Williams, hosts of the popular podcast Super Terrific Happy Hour, interview a true legend of the precious metals industry, John Hathaway of Sprott Asset Management. The three discuss the Fed, inflation, the financial markets and the outlook for gold bullion and gold stocks. 

With Fed policy taking a more hawkish turn, the fire hose of liquidity that has fueled market mania is being turned off. At this moment, it appears that confidence in the Fed and attraction to gold are binary. Our view is that a position in gold offers a very favorable asymmetric risk-reward proposition on the possibility that confidence will not survive 2022.

Overconfidence, complacency, recklessness and intoxication appear to characterize today's financial market zeitgeist. An unraveling of the market's speculative euphoria would constitute a near perfect environment for gold bullion and gold mining shares given that the fundamentals have rarely appeared more solid.

John Hathaway and Bill Strong join Stephanie Pomboy to reflect back on the Nixon Shock, and draw parallels to today. Pomboy describes it best: "Marking an anniversary can often seem like a hollow perfunctory exercise but I'd say this time, that is definitely not the case. The 50-year anniversary of the Nixon Shock and the policies he outlined in his speech carry unique resonance today."

June's gold selling was almost entirely a knee-jerk synthetic affair driven by algorithmic, headline scanning robotic macro funds. We believe the smackdown was a temporary reaction to the perceived change in the Fed's posture towards possible balance sheet reduction. In our opinion, gold and gold mining stocks are compelling buys and the investment rationale for precious metals exposure remains unscathed.

Gold is on the rise again, as the market debates whether inflation will be transitory as economies recover post-COVID. Extreme volatility among cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has also benefitted gold in Q2. Gold mining stocks are enjoying renewed activity as market participants recognize the free cash flow and profit potential this sector offers.

Defensive investment strategies are few and far between. Fixed income, debased by artificially low rates, no longer passes muster. Selling volatility to generate income seems like a form of insanity. Gold is the obvious answer. Whether in physical form or precious metals mining shares sporting good dividend yields and trading at depressed valuations, this unwanted investment strategy will prove seaworthy for all conditions.

The fate of the stock market and the outlook for gold are more intertwined than most realize. Gold has been performing well, but its outperformance is a well-kept secret. If a general bear market sets in, more investors will embrace gold and gold mining stocks. In the meantime, macroeconomic and valuation factors continue to build in gold's favor.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, John Hathaway, Senior Portfolio Manager of Sprott Gold Equity Fund (SGDLX), said that with significantly improved margins, rising gold prices and healthy production, investors can't ignore the value currently being generated in the mining sector for much longer. 

Tom Bodrovics, a host of Palisades Gold Radio, welcomes returning guest John Hathaway of Sprott. Hathaway says, “the setup for gold is so incredible. It's the best I've seen it in my 20 plus years of gold investing.” Hathaway explains why traditional portfolio weightings no longer work, given that bonds today are "return-free risk".  Gold can provide an alternative to bonds, and Hathaway explains how a relatively small move in the gold bullion price can have an outsized impact on gold miners' profit margins and the value of their stocks.

The current pullback in the precious metals sector is a buying opportunity. It is possible that gold and gold mining shares could continue to chop sideways-to-lower until the U.S. presidential election results are known and even into yearend as the implications are sorted out. We believe that now is the time to start layering in gold exposure, not when the rest of the world tries to do so.

We believe that the macro forces for gold and gold mining stocks have coalesced into what may be one of the 'fattest investment pitches' of our time. A fat pitch is a momentary event, akin to catching a major trend change in the financial markets. Such opportunities do not come around often. They deserve serious consideration and expeditious response.

Special guest speaker Carter Worth, Chief Market Technician at Cornerstone Macro, joins Sprott’s John Hathaway and Rick Rule, to learn why gold and gold equities are outperforming traditional asset classes right now. These respected industry experts share their current views on precious metals investing and discuss why both gold and gold stocks have significant potential to move higher, as the precious metals bull market continues to strengthen. 

Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott Asset Management, and John Hathaway, Senior Portfolio Manager, share their views on gold bullion and gold equities. They discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the landscape and is supporting a rising gold market.

Jim Grant in his May 15 Interest Rate Observer discusses gold mining equities with Senior Portfolio Manager John Hathaway, who opines: “Gold shares, in relation to bullion, are the cheapest they’ve been in his 20 years. What astonishes me—I’m an old value investor—is that so many companies are generating free cash flow, and it is not hard to find companies with free cash flow yields of 10% or better.”

Gold is on the cusp of breaking out to all-time highs in U.S. dollars and has already done so in virtually every other currency. Gold mining stocks continue to lag the metal and, in our opinion, represent a compelling investment opportunity. The COVID-19 pandemic panic was merely the black swan that punctured a financial market asset bubble that took almost a decade to inflate.

Sprott's Ed Coyne, Whitney George and John Hathaway provide in-depth analysis on gold and gold equities. The COVID-19 pandemic has created a new financial landscape, where returns from traditional financial assets, could be subpar for many years. By contrast, the crisis continues to highlight gold’s value as a safe haven investment.

We think gold has been sensing the endgame for Keynesian policy prescriptions, mainstream economic thinking and hyper-leveraged investment practices....At the moment, mining company valuations appear extraordinarily cheap. It is one of the few industries that will report solid year-over-year earnings gains for the remainder of this year and perhaps into the next. Buying low is never easy but now is the time to do it.

Last week’s selloff created an extraordinary buying opportunity. We believe that even a small, incremental increase in investor focus and capital flows will drive the low valuations of precious metals mining shares considerably higher.

Hathaway: "Going forward, unless the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, it risks a meltdown in equity and bond prices that could exceed the damage of the 2008 global financial crisis....With continued advances in gold prices in 2020, the return potential for gold mining shares — the still unloved orphans and pariahs of the investment universe — should prove to be very compelling."

John Hathaway and Doug Groh, Portfolio Managers of Sprott Gold Equity Fund, discuss the current dynamics in the gold investing space and our positive outlook for 2020.