Overconfidence, complacency, recklessness and intoxication appear to characterize today's financial market zeitgeist. An unraveling of the market's speculative euphoria would constitute a near perfect environment for gold bullion and gold mining shares given that the fundamentals have rarely appeared more solid.
September’s end brought on a new season and a welcomed uptick in gold prices with a settle at $1,757 per ounce. While gold struggled for the month, its positive finish reflected the uncertainty of recent macroeconomic progress. Gold mining stocks were harder hit in September as markets appeared to be factoring in a price-side and cost-side margin squeeze.
Gold closed August at $1,814 with a dramatic dip early/mid-month and a quick recovery. Improved July payroll job data gave traders reason to question whether the Fed will maintain its easy monetary stance. Gold sold off but regained support, helped at month end by the Fed's dovish tone at Jackson Hole.
John Hathaway and Bill Strong join Stephanie Pomboy to reflect back on the Nixon Shock, and draw parallels to today. Pomboy describes it best: "Marking an anniversary can often seem like a hollow perfunctory exercise but I'd say this time, that is definitely not the case. The 50-year anniversary of the Nixon Shock and the policies he outlined in his speech carry unique resonance today."
Gold bullion and gold mining equities gained ground in July. We saw a recovery in gold bullion investments as positions were repurchased and the decline in real yields to all-time lows added to the buying rationale. We believe that gold is well-positioned for a typical late summer/early fall rally, given record-negative real yields, a USD that may be topping out and waning taper/tightening fears.
June's gold selling was almost entirely a knee-jerk synthetic affair driven by algorithmic, headline scanning robotic macro funds. We believe the smackdown was a temporary reaction to the perceived change in the Fed's posture towards possible balance sheet reduction. In our opinion, gold and gold mining stocks are compelling buys and the investment rationale for precious metals exposure remains unscathed.
Gold and precious metals took a drubbing in June following the hawkish FOMC meeting that added two rate hikes to the dot plot. Chaos among most asset classes ensued and gold was unduly affected by the strengthening USD and rising real yields. This doesn’t change gold’s long-term fundamental tailwinds, given the unprecedented expansion and reach of monetary and fiscal policies, akin to a grand experiment.
Gold is on the rise again, as the market debates whether inflation will be transitory as economies recover post-COVID. Extreme volatility among cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has also benefitted gold in Q2. Gold mining stocks are enjoying renewed activity as market participants recognize the free cash flow and profit potential this sector offers.
Gold is making headlines once again after the safe haven asset had its strongest month of gains since July 2020. Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf joins Asset TV's Jenna Dagenhart to discuss Sprott's outlook for gold and gold equities. Grosskopf: "I think it's a very healthy environment for gold and we believe it is likely to do well going forward."
2021 marks the 50th golden anniversary of the "Nixon Shock," when the world's reserve currency was last partially tethered to gold. Since 1971, gold has mostly managed to trounce fiat paper as a currency and the yellow metal has held its own as an asset class. After 35 years in the gold trade and with the benefit of my Sprott team of experts, I feel qualified to state that today's environment offers a stellar opportunity to gold investors.
Gold's strong performance in May made up for the Q1 correction. Rising U.S. CPI data spooked markets, but helped boost gold and silver prices. As we head into summer (a seasonally strong period for the precious metals complex), we see several macro tailwinds working in our favor.
Ed Coyne joins Liz Claman Liz of FOX Business to look closer at gold. On The Claman Countdown. Liz and Ed talk about what happens to gold prices when the Federal Reserve tapers, or talks of tapering. Coyne explains why he believes physical gold should be a core allocation of most investor's portfolios.
April provided precious metals markets redemption from a challenging first quarter, with gold finishing the month up 3.60% and silver climbing 6.14%. Silver continues to benefit from expansionary monetary and fiscal policies worldwide and its key industrial role in the new technologies of the "green revolution."
Defensive investment strategies are few and far between. Fixed income, debased by artificially low rates, no longer passes muster. Selling volatility to generate income seems like a form of insanity. Gold is the obvious answer. Whether in physical form or precious metals mining shares sporting good dividend yields and trading at depressed valuations, this unwanted investment strategy will prove seaworthy for all conditions.
Gold prices finished March at $1,708, closing off a difficult quarter on the heels of gold's positive, record year. COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in the U.S. encouraged market optimism which was reflected in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar. Despite the cheerier economic outlook, the long-term risks associated with trillions of dollars of economic stimulus, and mounting debt, provide ample support for our bullish metals outlook.
February was a tough month for gold. Bond selling spiked into near panic mode and triggered a multi-asset sell-off into month-end. It was an uncomfortable replay of the 2013 Taper Tantrum in condensed form. Gold was not spared, but long-term trends remain in place for our bullish gold view.
For many U.S. investors the returns provided by owning physical gold — and the other precious metals including silver, platinum and palladium — come with a sobering surprise when the assets are sold and it’s time to pay taxes. The reason: The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) categorizes gold and other precious metals as "collectibles" which are taxed at 28%. Most other types of long-term capital gains are taxed at 15%-20%.
The silver market is abuzz in 2021. After climbing more than 47% in 2020, silver continues to play catch up to gold. Growing investment and industrial demand have driven up silver prices and created supply shortages, especially for investors looking to buy the physical metal. Silver ETFs have enjoyed record flows.
Gold started the year strongly, reaching almost $1,960 before dropping quickly back to support above the $1,800 range. We have been long-term bullish on silver, which has surged to an 8-year high. The Reddit crowd may accelerate this silver rally to extreme levels, but we can continue to make a strong fundamental case for silver that does not require any short squeeze schemes (real or imagined).
The fate of the stock market and the outlook for gold are more intertwined than most realize. Gold has been performing well, but its outperformance is a well-kept secret. If a general bear market sets in, more investors will embrace gold and gold mining stocks. In the meantime, macroeconomic and valuation factors continue to build in gold's favor.
2020 was a tremendous year for precious metals. Gold bullion gained 25.12%. Silver bullion rose 47.89%. Palladium climbed 25.86% and platinum increased 10.92%. Gold mining equities were up 21.96% and gold junior mining stocks rose 48.53%. We expect the precious metals rally to continue in 2021 and offer our Top 10 list for investors.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, John Hathaway, Senior Portfolio Manager of Sprott Gold Equity Fund (SGDLX), said that with significantly improved margins, rising gold prices and healthy production, investors can't ignore the value currently being generated in the mining sector for much longer.
As COVID spread in 2020, investors embraced gold and silver as portfolio protection. But the role of these metals extends far beyond this. We explore how precious metals are helping to medically combat the virus and identify several innovative disease-fighting applications that depend on gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
There are several macro-economic reasons why gold may make the perfect gift for the holidays....including the $18 trillion dollars of negative yielding debt in the world today, which is nearly equal to the size of the U.S. economy. Bonds are no longer a portfolio risk mitigator, and if you don’t hold some gold, silver and other precious metals assets, you should.
Investing in gold and silver mining companies is challenging but offers substantial rewards for investors with an edge. After two great performance years, in which gold mining equities outperformed the S&P 500 Index, these stocks are still relatively inexpensive. At Sprott, we rely on a broad team led by very experienced portfolio managers, in the fashion of a collective basket of mining DNA.
Gold prices have climbed sharply in 2020...The moves cap a year rocked by a pandemic that led to economic restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures, feeding the precious metal’s appeal as a haven investment. Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf sees the recent pullback in gold as “a healthy correction and a buying opportunity” for investors.
2020 has been a breakout year for precious metals. The uncertainty and risk-off sentiment created by the global COVID-19 pandemic have increased the luster of precious metals. Both gold and silver ETFs have enjoyed record flows. In this webcast, we explore the key benefits of precious metals investing in the current environment.
Precious metals took a post-election pause in November. Gold bullion lost 5.42% but is up 17.11% YTD and 21.38% YOY through November 30, 2020. Silver bullion lost 4.28% in November but has risen 26.84% YTD and 32.99% YOY. The macroeconomic fundamentals remain intact to support a continuation of this year’s precious metals rally. We see this correction as an attractive yearend, seasonal buying opportunity.
Tom Bodrovics, a host of Palisades Gold Radio, welcomes returning guest John Hathaway of Sprott. Hathaway says, “the setup for gold is so incredible. It's the best I've seen it in my 20 plus years of gold investing.” Hathaway explains why traditional portfolio weightings no longer work, given that bonds today are "return-free risk". Gold can provide an alternative to bonds, and Hathaway explains how a relatively small move in the gold bullion price can have an outsized impact on gold miners' profit margins and the value of their stocks.
With building anxiety over the U.S. presidential election, investors stepped away from markets in October, including gold bullion and mining equities. The uncertainties of the election and COVID-19's surging second wave have created a "risk mitigation" type market. The gold bull market remains intact and both gold bullion and mining equities are well-positioned under most plausible election scenarios.
Stephanie Pomboy and Grant Williams, hosts of the popular podcast Super Terrific Happy Hour, interview a true legend of the precious metals industry, John Hathaway. The three discuss Hathaway's storied career, how John's experience of multiple market cycles has helped him successfully maneuver the precious metals space and what he expects going forward.
With gratitude for a career on Wall Street that has spanned more than 40 years, I have experienced plenty of history. Looking back for an analog to this past year, in many ways, 1968 was a year on par with 2020. As a society, we survived and were able to move forward and grow from the experience, and we benefitted from positive investment lessons learned in the aftermath of 1968. This too shall pass.
The current pullback in the precious metals sector is a buying opportunity. It is possible that gold and gold mining shares could continue to chop sideways-to-lower until the U.S. presidential election results are known and even into yearend as the implications are sorted out. We believe that now is the time to start layering in gold exposure, not when the rest of the world tries to do so.
Sprott Market Strategist Paul Wong explains how technical analysis provides future guidance on the direction of gold markets and indicates that gold bullion and gold stocks have substantial room to move higher. He also explains why gold may be a more effective portfolio diversifier in this environment.
Markets experienced the first post-COVID meaningful correction in September as investment fund exposures were reduced, resulting in a contraction in market depth and liquidity. Despite September's profit taking, gold bullion posted its eighth straight quarterly gain. We see this as a buying opportunity for precious metals investors.
As gold hits new all-time highs and rises above $2,000 an ounce for the first time ever, Sprott and VanEck evaluate what's driving this safe haven asset's outperformance. Sprott's Ed Coyne and VanEck's Ima Casanova look at fundamentals, evaluate equities and share their outlooks.
After touching a record high of $2,075 on August 7, gold bullion closed August at $1,968. Despite this pullback, we see gold well supported above the prior cycle high of $1,900 as it settles into a sustainable $2,000-$2,200 trading level. Both silver bullion and gold mining equities reached multi-year highs in August.
Gold has powered over $2,000, and we take stock of what has been accomplished by the monetary metal and what may lie next. It has now been established as a baseline that a diversified asset portfolio must include an allocation to gold. No other liquid asset accomplishes what gold does in the way of portfolio insurance and purchasing power protection.
The economic fallout from COVID-19 has created a predictable headwind for jewelry purchases around the globe. We anticipate a healthy rebound in time, given that precious metals jewelry (especially gold and silver) is deeply rooted in global cultural norms and traditions. And despite the recent weakness in jewelry demand, metals prices continue to rally given the very supportive macroeconomic backdrop.
The precious metals complex set off fireworks in July as gold bullion reached all-time highs. Silver bullion and gold mining equities broke through significant long-term resistance levels to further improve their bullish standing. Year to date, precious metals continue to outperform as gold has attained “escape velocity”, i.e., it has gravitationally moved away from other asset classes.*
Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss the gold rally and what he expects for the commodity in the back half of 2020 and 2021.
We believe that the macro forces for gold and gold mining stocks have coalesced into what may be one of the 'fattest investment pitches' of our time. A fat pitch is a momentary event, akin to catching a major trend change in the financial markets. Such opportunities do not come around often. They deserve serious consideration and expeditious response.
Special guest speaker Carter Worth, Chief Market Technician at Cornerstone Macro, joins Sprott’s John Hathaway and Rick Rule, to learn why gold and gold equities are outperforming traditional asset classes right now. These respected industry experts share their current views on precious metals investing and discuss why both gold and gold stocks have significant potential to move higher, as the precious metals bull market continues to strengthen.
Gold bullion continued to deliver strong performance and was up 17.38% YTD through June 30, 2020, and 26.36% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities have gained 25.88% YTD, and 44.00% YOY as of June 30. This compares to -3.08% YTD and 7.51% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index. Silver posted strong gains in June and is on the move again; silver is up 1.99% YTD and 18.88% YOY as of June 30.
Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott Asset Management, and John Hathaway, Senior Portfolio Manager, share their views on gold bullion and gold equities. They discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the landscape and is supporting a rising gold market.
Economist David Rosenberg believes that investing in a post-pandemic world is shifting our focus from what we want to what we need. Households and businesses are reassessing the importance of savings, liquidity and balance sheet health. Gold has been a "winner" during this crisis.
This year’s 14th edition of our In Gold We Trust report, titled “The Dawning of a Golden Decade”, is being published at the opening of a new decade. As the last decade draws to a close, gold has once again demonstrated its sensitive seventh sense and alerted the keen observer that the general situation in the financial markets is about to change fundamentally.
After a tumultuous past few months, every asset class appears to be normalizing, including gold bullion. Gold posted steady gains in May with a 2.6% increase. Gold is up 14.04% YTD through May 31, 2020, and 32.54% YOY. At the same time, gold mining equities have gained 18.26% YTD, and 61.70% YOY as of May 31. This compares to -4.97% YTD and 12.84% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index. Silver also posted strong gains in May and is on the move again.
Gold miners have climbed steadily, following the positive path we predicted back in November 2019. As of April 30, 2020, gold mining stocks were up 11.01% YTD and 57.87% YOY, compared to -12.36% YTD and -7.91% YOY for the S&P 500 Index. In our view, gold mining equities still have a great deal of upside to offer, given that historically gold stocks tend to outperform the metal during gold bull markets (2-3x).
Jim Grant in his May 15 Interest Rate Observer discusses gold mining equities with Senior Portfolio Manager John Hathaway, who opines: “Gold shares, in relation to bullion, are the cheapest they’ve been in his 20 years. What astonishes me—I’m an old value investor—is that so many companies are generating free cash flow, and it is not hard to find companies with free cash flow yields of 10% or better.”
Gold equities broke out of a multi-year resistance level on massive buying flows in April. Gold miners may be experiencing disruptions due to COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, but they stand to benefit from a rising gold price. Gold bullion is up +11% YTD and +31% year-over-year (through April 30, 2020).
We propose that gold is not only a financial hedge to government monetary and fiscal policies, but it is also a mandatory portfolio and household diversification asset....Gold is first and foremost, a store of value. We believe there is fundamental support for a qualified currency to exist outside of government-led debasement. Gold is more legitimate and efficient than any other alternative currency.
Gold is on the cusp of breaking out to all-time highs in U.S. dollars and has already done so in virtually every other currency. Gold mining stocks continue to lag the metal and, in our opinion, represent a compelling investment opportunity. The COVID-19 pandemic panic was merely the black swan that punctured a financial market asset bubble that took almost a decade to inflate.
Sprott's Ed Coyne, Whitney George and John Hathaway provide in-depth analysis on gold and gold equities. The COVID-19 pandemic has created a new financial landscape, where returns from traditional financial assets, could be subpar for many years. By contrast, the crisis continues to highlight gold’s value as a safe haven investment.
March 2020 will go down in history as one of the most tumultuous ever for capital markets. For the first time in over 100 years, a global pandemic has struck with devastating results. Gold continues to deliver strong relative performance and was up 3.95% on a year-to-date basis through March 31, 2020, compared to -19.60% for the S&P 500 TR Index. The need for a safe haven asset like gold, that represents a store of value during crises has never been greater.
Jason Mayer, Senior Portfolio Manager, recaps the past two weeks: "We were not surprised by the recent selloff in gold bullion and precious metal equities. During violent broader market corrections, liquidity is priority number one....the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus in response to COVID-19 should debase fiat currencies while providing a tremendous tailwind for gold bullion and gold equities."
Whitney George reflects on markets and the COVID-19 crisis: "We are in a paradigm shift right now, one that may have taken us all a bit by surprise. I expect that central banks will shortly provide the liquidity required to settle the markets, an accomplishment that will be very favorable to gold."
We believe that gold provided what it should during times of crisis, a form of insurance to cash in when liquidity is required. We are comforted that throughout this "policy payout," gold has mimicked its performance in the GFC, during which it was first sold down by holders requiring funds for other purposes and then skyrocketed once liquidity was rebalanced and QE began in earnest. We believe that long-term investors, not subject to margin pressures, will be similarly rewarded by owning gold at this time.
We think gold has been sensing the endgame for Keynesian policy prescriptions, mainstream economic thinking and hyper-leveraged investment practices....At the moment, mining company valuations appear extraordinarily cheap. It is one of the few industries that will report solid year-over-year earnings gains for the remainder of this year and perhaps into the next. Buying low is never easy but now is the time to do it.
The Fed made a surprise interest rate cut of 50 basis points on Tuesday, March 3, and gold bullion closed the week higher, above $1,670. This follows gold's February breakout from the critical $1,585/$1,600 overhead resistance range that we have highlighted for several months.
Institutional Investor interviews Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf to discuss the firm's recent acquisition of the Tocqeville Gold Fund and the firm's deep commitment to the precious metals space.
Ed Coyne, Sprott Senior Managing Director, joins Liz Claman to review gold's bold move in 2019. Coyne shares Sprott’s 2020 outlook for gold bullion and gold equities, and explains that attitudes are shifting: Investors have traditionally invested in gold as a complement to equity portfolios, but are now viewing the yellow metal as an alternative to cash and bonds.
Hathaway: "Going forward, unless the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet, it risks a meltdown in equity and bond prices that could exceed the damage of the 2008 global financial crisis....With continued advances in gold prices in 2020, the return potential for gold mining shares — the still unloved orphans and pariahs of the investment universe — should prove to be very compelling."
John Hathaway and Doug Groh, Portfolio Managers of Sprott Gold Equity Fund, discuss the current dynamics in the gold investing space and our positive outlook for 2020.
Peter Grosskopf, CEO of Sprott, joins Jon Erlichman of BNN Bloomberg to discuss his expectations for the gold sector in 2020, and why Sprott has bulked up its investment team by acquiring Tocqueville Gold Strategies.
2019 marked the best performance for the precious metals complex in nearly a decade. Gold bullion closed the year at $1,517 (gaining 18.31% for the 12 months). Silver bullion ended the year at $17.85 (up 15.23% in 2019). Platinum climbed 21.56% in 2019, and palladium soared 54.24%. Gold mining equities showed notable strength, finishing 2019 up 46.97%.
Peter Grosskopf, CEO of Sprott, joins BNN Bloomberg for a look at M&A activity within the Canadian gold sector. Grosskopf says that while big-name gold miners like Barrick and Newmont have gone through notable acquisitions this year, we are likely to see a significant number of junior miner acquisitions in 2020.
Gold mining stocks have soared approximately 30% so far in 2019, based on the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) as of November 15.1 Over the last 12 months, the sector is up nearly 50%. Some investors may assume that gold stocks have run their course. On the contrary, we think that the gold mining equities still have a great deal of upside to offer.
Gold bullion has seen a double-digit YTD advance in 2019, and gold mining equities have also posted notable returns. Tocqueville Asset Management's John Hathaway and Ryan McIntyre join Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott Asset Management, to discuss their outlooks and suggest the optimal gold portfolio allocation for most investors.
Gold bullion consolidated in October, closing the month at $1,513, a 2.75% gain; YTD gold is up 17.97% as of 10/31/19. Silver bullion rose 6.55% for the month and has gained 16.86% YTD. As gold companies report Q3 earnings in the coming weeks, we expect robust earnings results to lift gold equity prices. The timing may be favorable as we are also heading into the best consecutive four-month seasonality pattern for gold mining equities.
This Real Vision video features John Hathaway, Senior Portfolio Manager of Tocqueville Asset Management, being interviewed by Dan Tapiero of DTAP Capital. They take a closer look at gold’s recent breakout and explore why gold equities are so attractive right now.
Peter Grosskopf, CEO of Sprott, shares his outlook for gold and the economy with Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Amanda Lang on Bloomberg Markets.
We believe the precious metals bull market is just in its early stages. Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director, National Sales at Sprott Asset Management, joins special guests Doug Groh and Ryan McIntyre, Portfolio Managers at Tocqueville Asset Management, to discuss their outlooks for gold bullion and gold equities, and suggest the optimal gold portfolio allocation for most investors.
Given gold’s sharp rise since May, September’s correction was not unexpected. We believe it is reflective of a new consolidation phase, and likely to be short term in nature. All factors that we consider to be significantly correlating to gold bullion indicate that we are still in the early stages of a major long-term advance.
For many U.S. investors the returns provided by owning physical gold — and the other precious metals including silver, platinum and palladium — come with a sobering surprise when the assets are sold and it’s time to pay taxes. The reason: The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) categorizes gold and other precious metals as “collectibles” which are taxed at a 28% long-term capital gains rate.
In our view, gold’s role as a non-correlating store of value has rarely offered more portfolio utility than it does today....The most troubling legacy of contemporary central banking has been the emergence of negative nominal interest rates. The fact that they actually exist, only highlights the dire nature of global financial imbalances.
Gold is clearly responding to a global pivot by central bankers back towards concerted monetary easing, and the intractable nature of excessive global debt levels suggests we are in the very early innings of the developing easing cycle. In short, for gold this is the real deal and we suspect things are just getting started.
The debate over gold’s place in a modern investment portfolio has been well covered. Call it the “Pet Rock” versus the “End of Fiat Currency” grudge match. But the facts are not subject to such intense interpretation....An enormous transformation of the gold market can occur once digital gold attracts the volumes needed to make it a serious business.
Shares of Sprott (TSX: SII) have posted big gains this year as gold prices continue to climb higher. Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss his outlook for the precious metal and the firm's acquisition of Tocqueville Asset Management's gold business.
July was positive for both gold and silver, which were propelled by the Fed’s interest rate cut on July 31, its first cut in 11 years. Any hope that this is a "one and done" rate hike has quickly been dashed with the latest U.S.-China trade war salvo. The long-term picture remains firmly intact. Gold and silver continue to rise as the market adjusts to a new central bank easing cycle.
We predicted that 2019 could surprise to the upside. YTD, through the Friday, July 19 close, gold bullion was up 11.14% and silver bullion has gained 4.58%....The wind is now at our backs and we believe that both gold and silver will climb higher. Silver, in particular, has the potential to significantly outperform gold.
To recap gold’s positive trend, gold continues to trade above the $1,370/80 per ounce level which verifies a critical multi-year base breakout. Gold’s rise has been impressive as multiple assets have corroborated the move, and the price action on many gold-related assets has been emphatic.
Ryan McIntyre, Portfolio Manager of Sprott Hathaway Special Situations Strategy, discusses how intrinsic value creating activities are likely to continue across the gold mining industry: "Both large and small companies are examining many alternatives to add value independently of the gold price."
Charley Wright of Strategic Investor Radio interviews Ed Coyne, Senior Managing Director at Sprott. They discuss Coyne's unconventional career path from architecture to finance, and explore why precious metals are one of the best alternatives for investor portfolios.
Sprott is pleased to be a major sponsor of the Incrementum's 13th edition of the annual In Gold We Trust report. Authors Ronald Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek explore the erosion of trust in international monetary policy: "The steady buying of gold and the repatriation of central bank gold clearly indicate growing mutual distrust among central banks."
Many investors turn to gold to hedge against the prospect of a bear market, defined as a prolonged downturn in which stock prices fall by at least 20% over two months or more. Gold is considered the undisputed king of uncorrelated assets, and is a proven, safe haven investment that lets investors sleep at night.
Tocqueville and Sprott Asset Management smell opportunity in a woebegone asset: gold.
Institutional Investor's Julie Segal interviews John Hathaway, Tocqueville Asset Management, and Whitney George, Chief Investment Officer of Sprott Asset Management.
We believe a new gold mining mergers and acquisitions (M&A) cycle has been ignited, and we expect this merger boom to accelerate over the next several years. Exploration is down, and new gold discoveries are scarce. Miners are strategically combining in order to increase production, reduce costs and improve operations.
As the gold price has oscillated around the high-profile $1,300 level throughout 2019, it has become increasingly apparent that strong demand from Eastern (physical) markets below $1,300 is roughly offsetting a lack of urgency in Western (paper) markets above that price point.
After much late-March huffing and puffing in COMEX markets to achieve a month-end close for spot gold below $1,300, trading in physical gold markets proved especially robust during the first week of April. To us, this suggests gold’s sub-$1,300 spot price is destined to be short lived.
If Alan Greenspan and Stanley Fischer can talk about gold as a policy tool, why can't Trump's nominees?....There is nothing wrong with talking about gold. We should follow it more closely not less.
This past week witnessed an unusually rich sequence of gold supportive events. Indeed, four successive developments came so fast and furious that we expect strong performance in the gold complex in coming weeks as investors have a bit more time to process the significance of recent news flow.
Peter Grosskopf, Sprott CEO, joins BNN Bloomberg and shares his insights on growing interest and investment in gold bullion. Grosskopf opines on the state of the precious metals industry and why he believes dynamics support more M&A activity.
Shree Kargutkar, Portfolio Manager, Sprott Asset Management, joins BNN Bloomberg to weigh in on the potential Barrick-Newmont merger, which he views as a "merger of equals" between the Canadian and U.S. mining majors.
Given the seminal nature of catalysts now in play for precious metals, we felt the timing appropriate for a comprehensive review of factors driving the gold price. In this report, we have compiled our Top 10 List of fundamentals supporting a portfolio allocation to gold in 2019.
The reports of gold’s death at the hands of cryptocurrencies seems to have been greatly exaggerated. We’ve warned investors about the instability of the cryptocurrency market and the false equivalency with gold over the past two years. New data validates our concerns.
We believe that gold bullion and gold mining equities may be poised for a multi-year uptrend. Gold bullion beat U.S. equities for the month of December, the fourth quarter, and the full calendar year of 2018. We suggested throughout 2018 that the catalyst for gold’s next important rally would be growing recognition that the Fed’s current tightening cycle was reaching a conclusion.
During this holiday season, we reiterate our stance that the Federal Reserve’s dual policy agenda of simultaneous rate hikes and balance sheet reduction is crimping global dollar liquidity to the significant peril of reigning financial asset valuations....U.S. residential real estate has hit a brick wall, and in our experience, no economic sector is more reliably predictive of growth trends than housing.
We have maintained that financial asset prices cannot sustain rising rates with this much debt in the global financial system. We have presented our case that Fed rate hikes are already causing financial stress in peripheral markets, and now this stress is washing ashore in the form of cardiac arrest at long-troubled American icons such as GE and Sears.... To us, it seems pretty clear there are growing rumblings for at least a pause in rate hikes. Gold is likely to erupt if this transpires.
During the next few months, we expect asset markets to come to terms with grossly misplaced investor faith in the sustainability of the Fed’s dual policy agenda of simultaneous rate hikes and balance sheet reduction — which amounts to little more than glorified brinkmanship. Recent market weakness supports our contention that Fed tightening is pinching global liquidity to a degree which threatens reigning valuations of traditional financial assets. Got gold?
We believe gold sentiment may be turning in our favor. For the first time in 17 years commercial participants in gold futures — generally regarded as the “smart money” — have flipped their COMEX positioning to net long. Reik: "As we await rebirth of western investment demand in gold markets, we suspect an imminent clash between hyper-bearish COMEX spec positioning and staunch global physical demand is about to ignite some short-term pyrotechnics. This should be interesting to watch!”
As investors flee the emerging markets and seek the safety of the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities, they've increased their short positions in commodities. Most surprisingly, and counterintuitively, bets against precious metals (gold, silver and platinum) have reached record levels.
This summer has been a frustrating stretch for gold bugs. Trey Reik writes: “As the scale of emerging markets dislocation expands on a weekly basis, the stored force in collapsing EM currencies is still funneling towards a strengthening U.S. dollar, and in turn reflexively pressuring the gold price.” In the face of this bearish sentiment, we have been encouraging Sprott clients to exploit summer price movements in precious metals to their maximum advantage.
Portfolio Manager Shree Kargutkar believes that "gold may prove to be the ultimate winner given the most recent trade conflicts." Despite the U.S. dollar's recent strength, Kargutkar argues that it is likely to be short-lived and that all the elements are in place for a durable bull market for precious metals and precious metal equities.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik answers the question: Why isn’t gold doing better? After trading in a bullish consolidation pattern for 18 months, gold appears to have lost some of its mojo. Trump’s June 1 tariff announcements and the U.S. dollar's spring rally have hurt gold and other commodities. Reik counters by arguing that gold’s price stability has been fairly unique among asset classes, and that right now is a fortuitous entry point for portfolio allocations to gold.
In this report, we employ the analytical framework of periphery to core. We have organized this letter around evidence that the Fed’s dual policy goals are straining financial conditions in peripheral components of four critical sectors: emerging markets, global financial institutions, U.S. corporate credits and U.S. consumer credits.
Sprott is pleased to be a major sponsor of the Incrementum's 12th edition of the annual In Gold we Trust report, which discusses three fundamental turning points affecting the global monetary system. Report authors Ronald Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek refer to these as “Monetary Turns of the Tide”, and write that “Gold will definitely contribute to staking out a comfort zone in the turmoil of the tidal changes that we have discussed.”
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik responds to Warren Buffett’s distaste for gold, staunchly reconfirmed by Buffett at the May 5 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting. Reik finds Buffett's gold-versus-stocks comparison self impeaching, and suggests that a prudent allocation to gold could improve the risk-adjusted returns even for Berkshire Hathaway.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik cautions us on the dramatic increase in the Libor-OIS spread. He sees a black swan now unfurling in U.S. financial markets: the Fed is on the verge of major policy error by underestimating the blunt force of the monetary brakes it is applying via rate hikes and QT, Quantitative Tightening.
Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia examines the relative merits of gold and cryptocurrencies as these two alternatives to traditional fiat currencies duke it out in the “monetary” boxing ring of investor sentiment.
The calm of equity markets across the world was rudely interrupted in February by a sudden spike in volatility which impacted virtually every asset class. Volatility across equities, bonds, currencies and commodities rose sharply. Gold bullion declined a modest 2.08% during February, and its relative lack of volatility merits notice.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik looks beyond the short-term damage of the Feb. 5 market selloff, and explores why the current fed tightening cycle is likely to increase the stress on individual consumers and inflict damage across a broad spectrum of financial assets.
Ed Coyne, Executive Vice President at Sprott Asset Management discusses how an allocation to gold and silver can complement equities in an investment portfolio, and why Sprott advocates a 5% to10% allocation for most investors. Coyne also introduces the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF), which represents the successful takeover of Central Fund of Canada.
With the beginning of the new year, we have entered a seasonally strong period for gold bullion and gold equities. Gold bullion posted a strong gain of 3.23% in January, ending the month at $1,345.15 per ounce. Even so, investor sentiment towards gold and gold equities continues to remain relatively muted.
Portfolio Manager Shree Kargutkar says, "gold is likely to benefit in early 2018 from its traditional first quarter strength." He also explains why gold mining equities are cheap right now, and why high-quality miners are positioned for strong earnings performances.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik examines the interplay between gold bullion and gold equities. This relationship has been noteworthy in 2017, given an anomalous performance gap that we believe may provide investment opportunity for precious metals investors.
Portfolio Manager Shree Kargutkar explains that while investment allocations to gold bullion and gold equities have been somewhat muted in 2017, we are now seeing signs of renewed interest in gold. Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has been on a recent buying spree.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik presents a collection of empirical evidence we view as compelling support of gold’s productive role as a portfolio-diversifying asset. He also addresses the disinterest in precious metals among institutional investors. He argues that given the current financial risks confronting investors, gold’s purchasing-power-protection seems an incredibly precious commodity.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik explains we he believes that "virtually every measure of domestic and global debt is significantly worse today than at its financial-crisis peak." He recaps gold bullion's performance in August, which despite the continued fervor for U.S. financial assets, has posted solid year-to-date gains, and broke through resistance at $1,300.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik discusses why gold has spent the past seven months in a tight trading range between $1,200 and $1,300 per ounce. Given the stored force inherent in such a trading pattern, history suggests a breakout, whether up or down, is likely to be characterized by a steep slope. The question remains, which direction will gold follow?
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik addresses the explosion of interest in cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin. He attributes the growing interest in digital currencies to a concern shared by many gold investors: resentment over the financially repressive policies of global central banks. But the investment merits of gold and bitcoin are substantially different.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik asks: "What is fueling this record-breaking investor complacency? We would suggest market perceptions of risk have been all but extinguished by relentless provision of central bank liquidity." He explains why gold's pullback is a reflection of persistent strength in U.S. equity markets.
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik identifies ten market variables we view as bullish for the gold price: "With respect to precious metals, we have rarely observed such a confluence of gold-supportive technical and quantitative variables across such a wide spectrum of relevant asset classes."
Senior Portfolio Manager Trey Reik looks at gold's lackluster performance in March: "We attribute this swift shift largely to a short stretch of particularly impassioned Fed jawboning, book-ended by the FOMC’s two crucial thought-leaders, Vice Chairman William Dudley and Chair Janet Yellen."
Insights from Sprott
- WGC - Gold: The Most Effective Commodity Investment
- WGC - The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset
- WGC - Gold Outlook 2021
- WGC - Gold Mining’s Contribution to the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2020
- World Silver Survey 2021
- Silver's Growing Role in the Automotive Industry - Jan. 2021
- Silver's Important Role in Solar Power - June 2020
- Silver's Role in a 5G Connected World - March 2020