A New Copper Supercycle Is Emerging

View Critical Materials May 2024 Performance Table

Key Takeaways

• The Nasdaq Sprott Energy Transition Materials Index rose in May—its third consecutive month gaining 6% or more—as favorable overall market conditions and global growth expectations benefited commodity resources broadly.
• A new supercycle is emerging in the copper market, built on several rising geopolitical and market trends contributing to a strong bullish outlook for copper prices.
• The global push towards clean electrical energy, coupled with protectionist moves by countries looking to secure vital materials, is driving an unprecedented surge in copper demand.
• At the same time, copper supply is constrained following years of underdevelopment, expanding protectionist policy measures, and a continued preference among copper producers to grow by M&A (mergers and acquisitions) rather than greenfield development.

May in Review

With all component groups advancing, the Nasdaq Sprott Energy Transition Index Materials (NSETM) had another strong month in May, increasing 6.35% to close at 1,082.71. The index has now posted three straight months of 6%+ returns and appears to be breaking out of its two-year-long consolidation (see Figure 1). Copper continues to lead—during the month, it climbed closer to an all-time high of $4.90 per pound before retracing to its breakout level. Copper mining stocks made new all-time highs during the month.

Spot uranium continued to consolidate in May, while the uranium miners sector rallied almost 12% to an all-time closing high mid-month. Nickel miner's stocks posted a 9.47% gain in May (following a 9.88% gain in April) as the group rebounds from extreme oversold conditions. Lithium miners, while continuing to lag, are attempting to carve out a low.

The S&P 500 reached an all-time high in May despite anticipated rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve being pushed out. The market is well-supported in general—financial conditions are loose (at the lows of a 10-year range), and earnings revisions are moving higher. With favorable market conditions and improving global growth expectations, the rotation to commodity resources is advancing and broadening.

Figure 1. NSETM Index Breaks Out

Source: Bloomberg. Nasdaq Sprott Energy Transition Materials Index. Data as of 5/31/2024. Moving average convergence/divergence is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs), calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Bans, Tariffs and M&A Rock the Global Metals Market

The U.S. has implemented several targeted bans and tariffs to minimize dependence on foreign imports from Russia and China to reinforce domestic industries. One such measure is the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, which bans enriched uranium imports from Russia, with potential waivers until 2028 to address supply concerns. In cooperation with the UK, the U.S. will also ban imports and trade of essential metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper from Russia, which is part of an effort to cut off revenue that supports Russia's military activities in Ukraine. This move directly affects activity on major metal exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London Metal Exchange.

The U.S. is also raising tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports to 25% and on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) to 100%. In addition, it plans to raise tariffs on semiconductors to 50% by 2025. This is part of a broader effort to curb China's dominance of global production and protect U.S. industries from unfair trade practices.

The U.S. is trying to address a number of key strategic goals:

• Reduce foreign dependencies: For example, the U.S. is actively decreasing its dependency on crucial resources like uranium and essential industrial metals from Russia and trying to diminish financial flows that could support Russia’s military engagement in Ukraine.
• Enhance domestic production: Legislative actions and tariffs on Chinese goods are designed to protect America’s crucial nuclear energy, semiconductor and EV industries and reduce vulnerability to international supply disruptions.
• Strengthen national security: The U.S. measures are fundamentally driven by national and economic security concerns. The aim is to reduce the import of materials seen as security risks, such as Russian uranium and various Chinese goods, and strengthen U.S. economic infrastructure amid rising geopolitical tensions.
• Promote cleaner energy: The policies also advance a cleaner energy agenda. They highlight nuclear energy's crucial role in clean electricity and align with environmental goals and sustainable development objectives. Green energy is also relatively isolated from the geopolitical uncertainties of global oil markets.
• Strengthen international alliances: The U.S. is also enhancing its alliances with countries like Canada, France, Japan and the UK, particularly in uranium enrichment, to build a coalition of allies against adversarial states.
• Boost internal unity: Substantial bipartisan support in the U.S. exists for these measures, which is crucial for the success of any long-term economic and security strategy and helps ensure continuity across administrations.

China’s Economic Recalibration

China is addressing its economic slowdown by boosting consumption and investing in new growth sectors like renewable energy and AI (artificial intelligence). It is supporting these initiatives with heavy government subsidies. This focus has significantly strengthened its industrial output, particularly in automobiles, EVs and solar panels. In response, the U.S. has set, while the EU is considering, trade barriers against cheap Chinese exports. To navigate this, China is shifting its manufacturing bases to countries with easier access to Western markets. It is also expanding its Belt and Road Initiative to open new markets and extend its geopolitical influence in developing markets.

Despite robust industrial activity, China faces a "two-speed" recovery, with strong exports but weak consumer spending, according to its National Bureau of Statistics. Efforts to enhance consumer confidence and consumption have largely failed. As a result, China is trying to export its way out of the economic slump.

Still, China has a dominant capacity in the energy transition sector and with increased spending, reshoring and industrialization of the energy transition by Western countries, we can expect further trade conflicts. This duplication (or creation of a parallel supply chain) will likely boost demand for energy transition metals like copper and increase competition.

As trade policies increasingly intertwine with national security concerns, international relations become more complex and global tension rises. This is part of a broad deglobalization sweep and a decisive move away from the trade liberalization of the past three decades.

BHP Goes After Anglo American

A high-stakes drama played out in May between two mining majors when BHP Group made (and then withdrew) an unsolicited offer for Anglo American. After escalation, the final offer was valued at $49 billion. Had it been accepted, this would have been on par with the largest M&A deals of the past two decades.

BHP's proposed acquisition was a strategic move to enhance its copper production capabilities. Although BHP failed to come to terms with Anglo American, the rationale for the deal remains very much in place, including:

• Copper's key role in the energy transition: Copper is critical for renewable energy infrastructure, such as EVs and solar panels. Copper demand is poised to increase amid global decarbonization and electrification efforts.
• Supply challenges: Copper supply faces many obstacles, such as technical mining difficulties, declining ore quality, environmental regulations and geopolitical tensions, particularly in copper-rich regions like Latin America and Africa.
• Market strategy: BHP wants to secure high-quality copper assets to meet rising demand and solidify its position as a copper leader. The acquisition would have given it control of about 10% of global copper production and allowed it to influence prices and market dynamics.

Anglo American's copper assets, in particular, have attributes that make them highly desirable to any mining company aiming to secure long-term supplies of copper, such as:

• High-quality reserves: Anglo owns significant reserves in prime mining regions like Chile and Peru, which are among the world’s largest copper producers with high-grade deposits.
• Large production capacity: Gaining control of Anglo’s output (826,000 tons of copper in 2023) would position any acquirer as a major player in the market.
• Growth potential: Many of Anglo’s mines have expansion capabilities, offering the potential to increase production to meet rising global demand.
• Operational excellence: Anglo is known for its efficient operational practices and innovative mining technologies, which provide opportunities to optimize productivity and profitability.
• Geopolitical stability: Despite complexities, its established copper mining operations in Latin America offer a stable investment environment compared to frontier regions.

What’s Driving the New Copper Supercycle?

A new copper supercycle is emerging, built on several rising geopolitical and market trends, including electrification, national security concerns, environmental policy, supply constraints and deglobalization. In combination, these are a powerful catalyst for copper demand.

The prior commodities supercycle that started two decades ago was driven by China rejoining the global economy, leading to mass industrialization and the urbanization of hundreds of millions of people. The current copper supercycle is far more global in reach, has many more demand sectors, and is entwined with the national security of many countries.

The U.S. is increasing tariffs and bans on materials imports to strengthen domestic industries and address security concerns. These measures include higher tariffs on Chinese energy transition-related goods to counter China's dominance in this vital industry. Despite this, China will continue to focus on energy transition, resulting in parallel or duplicate supply chains that draw on the same limited global materials supply. Meanwhile, producers are looking for ways to boost copper output in a market where the ability to grow production is exceptionally challenging.

These factors all point to an exceptionally bullish outlook for copper. Below, we examine the key drivers behind the new copper supercycle.

Structural Shortages

Copper demand is surging due to the global push towards electrification, which covers a wide array of technologies and initiatives. EVs are a major factor—they require about 2.4 times more copper than a traditional car. Renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, which are expanding rapidly, need large quantities of copper for turbines, solar panels and electricity infrastructure. The electrification of public transport systems also fuels the demand for copper.

Meanwhile, supply is not keeping up with demand (see Figure 2A & 2B). Developing a new copper mine is lengthy and expensive, often taking over a decade from exploration to production. These projects increasingly face stringent environmental regulations and community resistance, complicating development in major copper-mining regions. The mining sector has also seen long periods of underinvestment due to the cyclical nature of commodity markets. The long run of low copper prices has meant reduced exploration budgets and fewer discoveries.

As demand ramps up and consistently outstrips supply, sustained higher prices should characterize the copper market.

Figure 2A. Demand for Copper Is Likely to Outstrip Supply
Copper plays a central role in electricity transmission and EVs.

Source: BloombergNEF Transition Metals Outlook 2023. The black line represents supply and the shaded areas represent demand. Demand is based on a net-zero scenario, i.e., global net-zero emissions by 2050 to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Overdependence on M&A

The copper mining industry is focusing on redistributing existing assets through M&A rather than developing new assets. Greenfield projects are expensive and risky, requiring significant capital for exploration, development and regulatory compliance amid fluctuating metal prices. M&A is considered a more cost-effective, quicker, and lower-risk strategy to expand production. It can provide immediate access to proven reserves and existing operational infrastructures, bypassing the delays and uncertainties of new projects. This is especially pertinent in the copper markets, where rapid demand growth makes speed to market essential.

Producers like consolidation because it creates larger mining entities with better economies of scale, lower costs and greater operational efficiency. An integrated supply chain and optimized production processes can give a producer more influence during price negotiations or regulatory challenges. Firms can focus on core competencies, pool resources in areas like extraction and environmental management, and enhance project profitability.

However, in the longer term, relying on M&A over new discoveries may slow the industry's supply response to price signals and lead to prolonged market tightness, supporting a bullish outlook for the copper market.

Resource Nationalism

Global macro and policy factors are also key drivers for copper demand. Policies like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s REPowerEU plan support investment in green technologies and infrastructure. Rapid industrialization in emerging markets escalates copper demand for infrastructure and manufacturing. Trade policy changes (i.e., bans and tariffs), political instability and rising resource nationalism in copper-producing regions can disrupt supply chains and cost structures, leading to price spikes.

Deglobalization and rising geopolitical tensions increase dependence on local supply chains and ramp up military expenditures, spurring copper demand. Copper pricing is also influenced by currency fluctuations—the dollar's value significantly impacts global copper prices. Central banks' monetary policies further affect commodity prices—for example, expansionary policies typically boost copper.

Environmental Concerns

Copper miners face stringent environmental regulations related to land use, pollution control and conservation. These potentially delay new projects. Community opposition and increased awareness of mining's environmental impacts are prompting companies to adopt more sustainable practices. Mining companies are innovating more eco-friendly mining techniques and adhering to ESG principles, which are becoming a prerequisite for attracting investments and securing operational licenses. This, in turn, increases the demand for copper in renewable energy, EVs and energy-efficient construction. Environmental challenges and stringent approval processes for new mines will likely create supply constraints, supporting a long-term bullish outlook for copper prices.

Higher Price Expectations

The recent rebound in copper prices to near new all-time highs suggests the market increasingly recognizes the reality of long-term supply constraints. These are prompting market participants to adjust price expectations upwards in anticipation of tighter supplies against growing demand.

Speculative trading also influences the copper market, adding short-term price volatility as traders react to economic indicators and policy announcements. Given copper's pivotal role in modern technologies and green energy solutions, robust demand and supply fundamentals indicate the potential for a higher price trajectory for copper.

Figure 2B. Visualizing Copper Demand Growth
The cumulative demand for copper to 2050 is greater than the total produced copper over the course of human history.


Sources: ENERGYminute. https://energyminute.ca/infographics/the-volume-of-2050-net-zero-copper-demand/.

Updates on Critical Materials

Copper: Building on Tailwinds

The copper spot price rose 0.21% to $4.50 per pound in May (see Figure 3). Copper mining stocks gained 5.15%, culminating in a total year-to-date rise of 33.79%. Copper junior mining stocks fared similarly, increasing 3.91% in May.

The copper market saw continued momentum in May, building upon the robust tailwinds that emerged in early 2024. Supply disruptions continued to be a primary driver, exacerbating the supply-demand deficit and tightening market conditions. This was evident in the persistent upward trajectory of copper prices and the sharp decline in treatment charges.

Treatment charges, indicative of smelter margins and mine supply tightness, plummeted from over $90 per metric ton to below >$10 per metric ton. This drastic reduction compelled Chinese smelters, responsible for roughly half of global refined copper production, to consider a production cut of around 10%. Zambian smelters faced similar disruptions due to an El Niño-induced power crisis, with electricity rationing by the state power utility putting additional strain on the market.

The month of May also witnessed significant corporate activity as BHP walked away from its bids for Anglo American (see above). This proposed acquisition, aiming to create the world's largest copper producer, underscored the potential for consolidation in the copper sector. Although the deal was not completed, the copper mining space remains ripe for further M&A activity.

These developments, combined with increasing demand driven by AI applications and the energy transition, suggest the copper market is poised for a new supercycle. Expectations of easier monetary policies and a brighter global economic outlook further bolstered confidence in copper's prospects, signaling continued price upside potential in the long term.

Figure 3. Supply Disruptions Drive Copper Prices

Source: Bloomberg. Copper spot price, $/lb. Data as of 5/31/2024. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Lithium: Emerging from Unsustainable Lows

Lithium: Emerging from Unsustainable Lows

The lithium spot price declined 4.53% in May but still held above recent floors. By end-May, lithium was up 7.20% year-to-date (see Figure 4). Mining stocks, however, showed signs of basing, increasing 1.61% in May.

The U.S. announced tariffs on many Chinese products in May, including electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries. The tariffs increased from 25% to 100% on passenger EVs and 7.5% to 25% on lithium-ion batteries. The 100% tariff on EVs effectively makes it not economical for Chinese EVs to be sold in the U.S. despite their cost advantages. These higher tariffs do not imply demand destruction as the U.S., unlike the EU, imports almost no Chinese EVs today. However, the U.S.’s push to reshore supply chains may create new opportunities for increasing investment in other regions.

It remains vital for governments worldwide to obtain a secure supply of lithium for the energy transition. To that end, South Korea is allocating $171 million to secure critical minerals, planning to spend most of it building lithium reserves to counter upcoming shortages amid heightened geopolitical tensions. China continues to try and scale its domestic lithium production but has had to rely primarily on lepidolite. Lepidolite ores are a much lower grade than spodumene and are much more expensive, putting much of China’s lepidolite production at uneconomical levels. Lepidolite accounted for almost half of China’s lithium output in 2023.¹⁶

Canada’s Standard Lithium soared in May on news that Equinor, a Norwegian state-owned energy company, had agreed to acquire a 45% share in Standard Lithium’s two U.S. lithium projects located in Southwest Arkansas and East Texas. Equinor, an international energy company with an $87 billion market capitalization, has significant capital to devote towards lithium production. Measured by market capitalization, Equinor is larger than all current lithium miners combined. This deal followed an announcement last November by ExxonMobil that it aims to become a leading supplier of lithium by 2030. Big Oil’s push into lithium provides evidence that the future of energy is lithium-dependent and showcases the long-term opportunity in lithium mining.

Figure 4. Lithium Prices Hold Above the Floor

Source: Bloomberg. Lithium carbonate spot price, $/lb. Data as of 5/31/2024. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Nickel: All Eyes on New Caledonia

On the heels of its big move in April, nickel climbed higher in May, gaining 2.05% for the month (see Figure 5). Year to date, nickel was up 18.81% by end-May. Nickel mining stocks gained even more ground in May, increasing 9.47%; however, they continue to lag the metal year-to-date with a return of 8.66%.

Continued unrest in New Caledonia put the world’s third-largest nickel producer in the spotlight in May. The turbulence helped push nickel to a new high price during the month. New Caledonia has been under French rule since 1853, and May’s violence was sparked after France moved to reform the electorate by broadening voting for the non-indigenous population. The turmoil has somewhat thwarted President Emmanuel Macron’s wish to put New Caledonia at the center of France’s efforts to secure resources to promote clean energy and support its electric vehicle industry. New Caledonia's nickel mines, which employ nearly a quarter of its population (270,000) and account for 90% of its exports, have virtually shut down, exacerbating long-standing economic strains within the territory and creating a volatile situation.

Figure 5. Nickel Rises on Territorial Turbulence

Source: Bloomberg. Nickel spot price, $/lb. Data as of 5/31/2024. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

FEOC Rules Should Boost Certain Nickel Producers

Despite New Caledonia’s impact on global nickel supply, the market remains in surplus, given a glut of production from Indonesia and soft demand from China. China’s struggling economy has reduced nickel demand for both stainless steel and EV batteries. However, nickel miners in the West will likely get a boost from new U.S. guidance, starting in 2025, that incentivizes car manufacturers to avoid using critical materials owned or controlled by a Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC).

These FEOCs include China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. On May 3, new rules were released stating that any company with at least 25% ownership held directly or indirectly by a FEOC would be ineligible for the Inflation Reduction Act’s $7.5K tax credit for EVs. Some 23% of mined nickel properties in Indonesia have China-based ownership of 25% or more, making it harder for U.S. manufacturers to source nickel from Indonesia, which accounts for 12% of global production.¹⁷ Adding China (3%) and Russia (6%) results in a sizeable 20% of the global market (see Figure 6).

Ultimately, the world’s shift to policies that impede globalization is inflationary for nickel prices. We believe this may provide a tailwind for nickel miners not from or owned by China and Russia.

Figure 6. How Global Nickel Production Breaks Down

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Nickel production by country in 2023.

May 2024 Performance

*Mo % Chg and YTD % Chg for this Index are calculated as the difference between the month end's yield and the previous period end's yield, instead of the percentage change. BPS stands for basis points. 

• For the latest standardized performance of the Sprott Energy Transition ETFs, please visit the individual website pages: SETM, LITP, URNM, URNJ, COPP, COPJ and NIKL. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Footnotes