Insights

Gold and silver prices surged in Q3 2024, driven by central bank buying and macroeconomic factors. While gold experienced a historic price increase, silver's price was influenced by both its precious metal value and industrial demand. YTD through September 30, gold is up 27.71% and silver has gained 30.95%.

Demand for electricity over the next decade will put pressure on the U.S. power grid to keep pace. New investment in power-hungry industrial facilities is driving demand, especially the data centers that support artificial intelligence (AI), U.S. reshoring initiatives and the steady electrification of the transport sector.

We believe gold mining equities are poised for growth, as they remain undervalued despite rising gold prices. Western investors have largely ignored gold, but any shift has the potential to push gold prices higher, which will likely benefit miners. In our view, the current market displays the signs of an early-stage bull market.

The uranium market has faced short-term volatility, including price declines driven by geopolitical tensions and economic concerns. Despite these challenges, the long-term outlook remains strong. Supply uncertainties from key producers like Kazakhstan and Russia are contributing to this volatility, but the fundamental supply-demand imbalance suggests further growth potential.

Gold has surged above the psychological $2,500 level, driven by factors not easily explained by traditional market variables, suggesting possible central bank or sovereign activity rather than usual market dynamics.

Renewable energy is rapidly replacing fossil fuels as costs decrease and efficiencies improve with increased deployment, making it much cheaper than traditional energy sources. This shift, driven by the exponential growth of renewables, electrification, and efficiency, is expected to significantly alter global power dynamics as fossil fuels are phased out.

Significant investments in AI-related tech stocks have helped push the S&P 500 Index to record highs this year. The rapid growth of AI is significantly increasing the energy demands of data centers, which is likely to lead to a surge in demand for critical materials.

This might be an ideal moment to re-evaluate lithium miners given their potential to benefit as the global energy transition continues. The current dip in the price of lithium miners presents a potential short-term opportunity, given the strong future demand and supply imbalance. 

The uranium spot price has remained range-bound between $85 and $95 per pound, and ended the first half at $85.34 (June 30, 2024). Uranium miners fell in June, but bounced back in early July, outperforming the commodity YTD. 

Gold’s breakout may signify more than one might infer from the continuing lack of interest. Inflows into the precious metals mining space have the potential to generate compelling outcomes.

Gold gained 12.79% YTD by June 30, supported by central bank buying. Silver closed Q2 at $29.14, boosted by gold's breakout and global monetary expansion.

The fourth industrial revolution (4IR) is driving unprecedented change. Its dominated by AI, robotics, IoT, genetic engineering and quantum computing. 4IR technologies need critical minerals, fueling a new commodity supercycle.

YTD the uranium spot price has stabilized between $85-$95 per pound after an 88.54% rise in 2023, indicating a healthy correction in a bullish cycle. Uranium miners' performance improved, matching spot price gains.

The copper market is entering a new supercycle. Demand is surging as countries invest in clean energy and protect their access to copper, while supply is constrained by a lack of new mine development.

Silver is crucial in the shift to cleaner energy, vital for solar panels and EVs, which reduce greenhouse gases. New technologies like AI have increased demand, while overall silver supply has declined.

The rise of AI and data centers will boost global electricity demand, challenging power grids but benefiting clean energy sources like nuclear. This trend will also increase demand for copper.

Nickel's future is bright due to its role in net-zero goals. Stricter regulations and government support for EVs are driving demand, benefiting nickel mining companies in the long run.

Rising global nuclear energy commitments make uranium a compelling investment. Despite a slight dip in spot prices, there's potential for growth.

In March, the uranium market saw mixed results: spot prices fell, but miners' stocks rose due to a positive long-term outlook. We believe the uranium bull market has more room to grow.

The energy sector has experienced a remarkable transformation, primarily driven by the rapid growth and integration of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is the advancement of battery storage technology.

The breakout in gold prices since February has been largely ignored by mainstream investors. Gold bullion’s breakout is significant in that it represents the positive resolution of a three-year consolidation.

Gold reached an all-time closing high and is up 8.09% YTD (as of 3/31/2024) after rising 13.10% in 2023. We believe several factors are in place for gold to move higher, such as strong central bank buying. 

Uranium markets pulled back in February after a rapid rise—in our view, this is a healthy pause in the ongoing uranium bull market. News from Kazatomprom and Cameco reinforce uranium markets' structural supply deficit.

February was lackluster for critical materials, but the backdrop remains very positive. The global commitment to clean energy hit a new milestone in 2023 as investment surged to an unprecedented $1.77 trillion.

The demand for copper in energy grids, electric vehicles and clean energy technologies, combined with diminishing ore grades and limited inventories, underscores copper's growing importance. 

In the U.S. alone, copper is a crucial element in nearly 7 million miles of electrical wires. This white paper introduces the trends that are driving copper markets and copper miners, and explains our positive outlook. 

Uranium price surged 11% in January, fueled in part by Kazatomprom's cut in guidance for 2024 production. Junior uranium miners were top performers , climbing 18.78%. 

The era of renewable energy is emerging and beginning to reshape power generation. Recent trends suggest that this is a fundamental transformation powered by the fall in renewable energy costs. 

2023 provided the long-awaited inflection point for the uranium contracting cycle. Long-term security of supply concerns, fanned by lingering geopolitical risks and the challenges of expanding primary production, are likely the key themes to watch.