Uranium’s Mid-Year Momentum

Key Takeaways from June

• June Surge Confirms Market Strength: Spot uranium rose 9.99% and uranium equities rose sharply, driven by improving sentiment and renewed institutional capital flows.
• Policy Shifts Support Long-Term Demand Outlook: The World Bank’s nuclear funding reversal and a wave of U.S. and EU policy support mark a turning point in nuclear investment frameworks.
• U.S. Actions Clear Regulatory Overhang: Recent U.S. policy developments enhance forward visibility, streamline permitting and support a potential quadrupling of reactor fuel demand, resetting utility contracting dynamics.
• AI and Data Centers Add Structural Demand Layer: Over 28 GW of announced nuclear capacity tied to AI and digital infrastructure signals a long-cycle, price-insensitive source of uranium demand.

Performance as of June 30, 2025

*Performance for periods under one year is not annualized.
Sources: Bloomberg and Sprott Asset Management LP. Data as of 6/30/2025. You cannot invest directly in an index. Included for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Performance Overview: The Uranium Recovery Accelerates 

June delivered a powerful continuation of uranium’s recovery, as financial capital flowed back into the market and an increasingly supportive global policy backdrop catalyzed sentiment to catch up with the strengthening fundamentals of the uranium market.

Uranium prices surged in June, with spot prices rising 9.99% to $78.56/lb, marking their best monthly performance of 2025 and pushing year-to-date gains to 7.36%.¹ June’s strong move higher was a continuation of the recovery that began in April and continued into May. Uranium miners benefited even more in June. Uranium miners² climbed 18.19% in June and are up 68.18% since their April lows, while junior uranium miners³ were up 17.94% in June. The magnitude of this move demonstrates the torque uranium miners offer when sentiment finally reconnects with the uranium market’s strong underlying fundamentals.

Uranium miners jumped more than18% in June, demonstrating their torque to shifting sentiment.

With term prices steady at $80/lb and producers continuing to signal supply and contracting discipline, this improvement in the spot price, in our view, better reflects the costs of future production and the structural supply deficit. The prior return of the carry trade had also indicated this, as traders helped bridge the gap between short- and long-term markets by stepping in when utilities were reluctant.

Looking at longer-term performance, uranium and uranium miners have meaningfully outpaced equities and broader commodity benchmarks over the past five years (Figure 1). The resilience is underpinned by a structural supply deficit, inelastic demand and growing policy tailwinds. With momentum now rebuilding and global energy policy expanding, the next leg of the cycle may be shaped by renewed utility contracting and the accelerated buildout of future demand through life extensions, uprates, restarts and new builds.

Figure 1. Physical Uranium and Uranium Stocks Have Outperformed Other Asset Classes Over the Past Five Years (6/30/2020-6/30/2025)

Source: Bloomberg and Sprott Asset Management. Data as of 06/30/2025. Uranium Miners are measured by the Northshore Global Uranium Mining Index (URNMX index); Junior Uranium Miners are measured by the Nasdaq Sprott Junior Uranium Miners™ Index (NSURNJT™ Index); U.S. Equities are measured by the S&P 500 TR Index; the U308 Spot Price is from TradeTech; and Commodities are measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Definitions of the indices are provided in the footnotes. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

Uranium Market Drivers: Improving Sentiment, Supportive Policy and AI Energy Demands

Nuclear Energy Gains Global Political Backing

The global policy tailwinds supporting nuclear energy strengthened meaningfully in June. International institutions and national governments took concrete steps to back nuclear energy as a core pillar of energy transition and security, reinforcing a more durable demand outlook for uranium.

In June, in a major policy shift, the World Bank reversed its long-standing ban on financing nuclear energy projects. This major change could reshape the global landscape of nuclear investment⁶, given the World Bank’s role as a leading international financial institution (it facilitated $117.5 billion in loans and grants to developing countries for economic development in 2024). The World Bank further recognized nuclear’s critical role in clean and reliable energy by announcing its new partnership with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to help extend the life of the existing global reactor fleet. The World Bank’s reentry into nuclear financing paves the way for expanded public financing and helps to reduce the investment risk for nuclear projects.

World Bank and global governments are turning pro-nuclear, boosting the long-term uranium demand outlook.

The U.S. added a significant development, with the State of New York announcing plans to build a new nuclear power plant with a minimum capacity of 1 gigawatt (GW).⁷ The project is designed to meet the rising electricity demand of AI data centers and enhance grid reliability. The announcement provides a signal that states, like New York, which had prematurely closed its Indian Point nuclear power station in 2021 due to environmental pressure, are refocusing energy policy to address growing demand and to improve grid stability.

Nuclear investment in Europe gained further traction among pro-nuclear countries and several holdouts. In June, the Czech Republic announced an $18 billion nuclear power plant deal with South Korea to build two new nuclear power reactors. The United Kingdom committed an additional £14.2 billion to its nuclear buildout, specifically at the Sizewell C nuclear plant, expanding on its previously announced Great British Energy - Nuclear initiative.⁸ Finally, Belgium’s parliament dropped its nuclear phaseout plans, which had been adopted twenty years ago. 

These developments build on prior shifts in Europe, particularly in Germany, Denmark and Spain, where nuclear opposition has softened or reversed outright (Figure 2). The policy narrative is clearly changing: nuclear is viewed as essential to grid resilience, energy security, industrial competitiveness and decarbonization goals.

The growing alignment among global policymakers supports a more bullish uranium demand outlook, with implications for expanded long-term contracting, improved price stability and renewed investment across the nuclear fuel supply chain.

Figure 2. Europe Refocuses on Energy Security

Source: WNA. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/facts-and-figures/world-nuclear-power-reactors-and-uranium-requireme 

U.S. “Big Beautiful Bill” Cements Nuclear Advancement

The July 4 passage of the Big Beautiful Bill marked a sweeping overhaul of U.S. energy and tax policy.⁹ Its implications for clean energy are clear: the clean energy-based subsidy regime established under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been significantly scaled back. Many of the IRA’s cornerstone incentives, particularly for electric vehicles, wind, solar, hydrogen and energy storage, were repealed or curtailed through shorter eligibility windows, stricter domestic content rules, etc. Amid this retrenchment, nuclear stands out as a clear beneficiary.

The IRA tax credit for nuclear energy production was preserved, with a narrow modification, most notably excluding entities majority-controlled by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. This clarity is especially consequential given recent utility hesitation around long-term uranium contracting. Many market participants had paused procurement to assess whether IRA repeal efforts would impact credit availability and project economics. With the legislative outlook now settled, we expect utilities to resume contracting with improved visibility into forward economics, supporting the demand outlook for uranium.

The Big Beautiful Bill also follows a series of four nuclear-focused executive orders signed by President Trump in May, further reinforcing federal commitment to nuclear energy: 

• Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC): Quadruple nuclear energy capacity by 2050; deadline of 18 months for review of construction permits and operating licenses (typically could take 30-42 months prior to this); NRC cost recovery will be capped (the two most recent reactor designs resulted in NRC fees of between $45 and $70 million); full overhaul of licensing rules and more.
• Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base: Enable 5 GW of increased power outputs at existing plants; begin constructing 10 large reactors by 2030; develop a plan to expand U.S. uranium conversion and enrichment; create a strategy for spent fuel and enabling advanced fuel technologies.
• Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security: Site, approve and authorize advanced nuclear technologies to power AI infrastructure; the domestic military base must operate a military reactor by 2028.
• Reforming Nuclear Reactor Resting at the Department of Energy (DOE): Create a pilot program for constructing and operating at least three new test reactors; designate qualified test reactors within 60 days and revise rules for them within 90 days.

These recent U.S. legislative and executive actions remove a major policy overhang for the nuclear sector and materially enhance long-term visibility. In a capital-constrained environment where renewable energy development face mounting obstacles, nuclear now enjoys strong federal support, prioritized supply chain security and favorable tax and procurement policies. These developments are likely to have a major impact on demand for uranium. For example, the Executive Order for Reforming the NRC would imply a quadrupling of the U.S. reactors’ uranium requirements, from nearly 50 million lbs of U3O8e to almost 200 million lbs. If materialized, this additional 150 million lbs of U3O8e would represent a near doubling of the world’s current total global U3O8 mine production, forecasted at 164 million lbs U3O8 in 2025 by UxC.

AI and Data Centers Help Drive Structural Nuclear Demand

Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to drive a structural demand shift in nuclear energy, positioning uranium as a critical fuel for long-term data center growth. In June, Amazon and Talen Energy expanded their partnership. Talen will now supply up to 1,920 megawatts (MW) of clean power from its Susquehanna nuclear plant to Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS Vice President of global data centers noted, “We are making the largest private sector investment in state history, $20 billion, to bring 1,250 high-skilled jobs and economic benefits to the state, while collaborating with Talen Energy to help power our infrastructure with carbon-free energy”.¹⁰ 

AI is emerging as a powerful new driver of long-term nuclear demand.

According to BloombergNEF, U.S. data centers are projected to consume 8.6% of total electricity demand by 2035, up sharply from 3.5% today.¹¹ In response, there has been a wave of 16 U.S. nuclear power announcements tied to data centers and AI, at over 28 GW of capacity, which would represent nearly 30% of the U.S.’s current nuclear capacity (Figure 3).

While technology giants like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle have collectively announced deals for 10.7 GW of nuclear capacity, BloombergNEF notes that their efforts are being outpaced. Colocation providers, like Switch (which builds and leases data center space to other businesses), have announced more than 17 GW of nuclear deals. The most ambitious among them is the 12 GW partnership between Switch and Oklo, targeting phased deployment through 2044.

Artificial intelligence is playing an increasingly critical role in long-term nuclear procurement agreements and firm capacity planning. This structural demand driver is accelerating utility contracting and reinforces the investment case for uranium across the cycle.

Figure 3. AI and Data Center Announcements Tied to U.S. Nuclear Power

Source: BloombergNEF, Developments in the US Advanced Reactor Industry, June 23, 2025.

Looking Ahead: Uranium Market Builds Toward a Strong Second Half

Uranium remains one of the few commodities with truly inelastic demand, offering rare insulation from both macroeconomic volatility and substitution risk. With contracting activity still well below replacement levels and a deepening structural supply deficit, the setup into year-end appears increasingly supportive.

Thus far in 2025, utilities have signed only 27 million pounds in the term market, less than one-third of the replacement rate needed to maintain coverage. This underperformance reflects delays in procurement amid policy uncertainty and pricing volatility. However, with term contracting lead times now falling to just 2.6 years, utilities should be growing more concerned about future availability. We believe that rising uncovered requirements between 2028 and 2035, coupled with geopolitical risk and the need to rebuild inventories, point to pent-up demand that must eventually return to the market.

Uranium’s setup into year-end appears increasingly bullish.

Geopolitical risks remain a key driver. In June, Niger stated it will fully nationalize the uranium mine Somaïr, tightening state control over one of the country’s largest uranium assets. The move underscores the fragility of a supply chain concentrated in just a few countries. With production discipline holding and a growing gap between incentive prices and new project economics, the market could remain in a structural supply deficit for the foreseeable future. 

Seasonality may also play a role. While summer is typically a slow period for uranium contracting, utilities and traders are entering the second half of the year behind on volume, suggesting the potential for a more active fall contracting window. The World Nuclear Association’s biennial demand forecast, due in early September, may provide the next catalyst, which may include a meaningful revision higher, similar to the 2023 report that helped trigger a breakout in term activity.

Additional developments could add to positive momentum. A U.S. Section 232 national security investigation into critical minerals (including uranium) is underway, with a focus on strategic inventory levels. This is the same investigation used to impose 50% duties on steel and aluminum. Meanwhile, China released a report forecasting that it will nearly double its nuclear power capacity by 2040, positioning itself as the world’s largest nuclear generator.¹²  

Against this backdrop, some uranium equities remain under pressure with elevated short interest. As financial sentiment catches up with structural realities, we believe the market is setting up for a renewed leg higher in the uranium bull market (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Uranium Bull Market Continues (1968-2025)

Click here to enlarge this chart.

Note: A “bull market” refers to a condition of financial markets in which prices are generally rising. A “bear market” refers to a condition of financial markets in which prices are generally falling.
Source: TradeTech Data as of 6/30/2025. TradeTech is the leading independent provider of uranium prices and nuclear fuel market information. The uranium prices in this chart dating back to 1968 is sourced exclusively from TradeTech; visit https://www.uranium.info/.

Footnotes