Insights

On Friday, December 1, 2023, spot gold bullion registered an all-time high closing price of $2,072.22, surpassing the prior closing high of $2,063.54 reached on August 6, 2023.

As the U.S. advances in its pursuit of clean energy, it is strategically redirecting its energy security emphasis from oil to critical minerals, and diminish the influence of oil geopolitics and petrostates such as Russia.

Gold demand from sovereigns and central banks remains unwavering. Over the past decade, China has been committed to bolstering its gold reserves to enhance its economic and geopolitical standings. 

Uranium's performance helped the energy transition complex close higher in September. From a macro outlook, solar panels are emerging as a critical player in the global energy transition. 

Uranium had a strong August, contrasting with the decline of most energy transition metals due to China's economic troubles. The investment capital spurred by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is turning the U.S. into a cleantech powerhouse.

The U.S. power grid desperately needs modernization. This is driving the development of energy storage systems and V2G (vehicle-to-grid) technology and is a major copper demand driver. 

Central banks and investment funds were the main players shaping the gold market in the first half of the year. Gold is reverting to its historical role as a significant reserve asset as central banks seek to diversify amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Energy transition metals miners posted strong results in June, with uranium mining equities leading the group. The U.S. is entering the early stages of a manufacturing supercycle driven by massive energy transition investment.

Gold attempted to breakout above $2,050 in early May before drifting lower as the U.S. debt-ceiling drama deepened and the U.S. dollar strengthened. At the same time, global central banks have been accumulating gold at a record pace. 

Lithium and lithium miners staged a sharp rebound rally in May and were the positive exception among critical minerals. The sector was weighed down by China's faltering recovery, ongoing global growth concerns and the U.S. debt ceiling drama. 

The gold market continues to be bullish as the probability of a recession rises, regional banking stress resurfaces and the Fed seems determined " get inflation down to 2%, over time".

The long-term secular growth outlook for energy transition materials got several boosts in April. Chile's decision to nationalize its lithium reserves reinforces the metal's role as a global strategic economic asset. 

As deglobalization accelerates, unfettered access to critical minerals is not likely to last. The old system of free and fair access to commodities, including critical minerals, is moving toward one marked by interregional competition, and unstable availability and pricing.

Gold posted a solid Q1 2023 gain of 7.96%, and is now up 21.38% from last autumn's low (9/26/22) following the most aggressive central bank purchases in decades and gold investment flows catalyzed by the U.S. banking crisis. 

As the global energy transition "arms race" heats up, the drive to secure supply is fast becoming more important than price. All signs indicate the 40-year bond bull market has likely ended and the next great secular bull market in commodities has begun.

Gold fell in February, closing the month at $1,827 in a correction characterized by a stall in buying, but not selling. Global central banks have been buying gold at record rates; more than three times their long-term averages.

We believe we are in the early stages of an energy transition materials secular bull market and favorable supply-demand dynamics are likely going forward. The upward revision in global growth, the timing effect of the China credit impulse and the surprise ending of China's zero-COVID policy have provided a tailwind for the metals market. 

January was another positive month for gold bullion. We saw strong gold buying from China, with estimated tonnes purchased at the highest level since 2017.

This year’s top 10 list offers Sprott’s thoughts on what will likely drive markets in the coming year and decade, from a macro perspective and the vantage of our asset classes: Precious Metals and Energy Transition Materials.